World Economy Barometer - October 2013
The Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) usually provide a very timely insight of private sector activity. However, this month they may be a victim of rapidly changing circumstances. Namely, the US government shutdown and debt ceiling debacle.
16 October 2013
The US government shutdown and the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling is likely to be exerting a drag on the economy as we write.
So what can we say? Despite a weaker reading in the global composite PMI, the global economy appears in reasonable shape.
It means that if the troubles in the US can be resolved soon, there’s a good chance things can get back on track quickly. But the most glaring risk to the global economy is that the political issues in the US are not resolved, or simply re-emerge in the very near future, and do substantial damage to growth.
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This material is published by The Royal Bank of Scotland plc (“RBS”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by RBS and RBS makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the RBS Group’s Group Economics Department, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The classification of this document is PUBLIC. © Copyright 2013 The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. All rights reserved.
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