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Interest and exchange rate forecast - Seeking clarity

Over the past month it's been more about what central bankers have said, rather than what they've done. Comments made by US Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, and interest rate forecasts produced by Fed members had markets thinking rate hikes might start earlier than expected.

While the latest Fed meeting minutes reaffirmed the view that rates will be on hold for an extended period, it highlights the importance of clarity as central banks and markets seek to understand one another in the world of forward guidance. Getting clarity will be ever more important and difficult as forward guidance moves to a qualitative stance.

Download the full forecast (PDF 81KB)

 

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This material is published by The Royal Bank of Scotland plc (“RBS”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by RBS and RBS makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the RBS Group’s Group Economics Department, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The classification of this document is PUBLIC. © Copyright 2013 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc. All rights reserved.

 

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