Group Chief Executive's review

Stephen Hester, Group Chief Executive

Our priorities

Our aspiration

RBS should again become one of the world's premier financial institutions, anchored in the UK but serving individual and institutional customers here and globally, and doing it well.

Our aims

  • To achieve AA category standalone credit status
  • To rebuild shareholder value, along the way enabling the UK Government to sell down its shareholding

We will achieve our aims by

  • Focusing our activities on serving enduring customer franchises, with top tier competitive positions where we choose to compete
  • Targeting 15%+ return on equity in our businesses
  • Achieving primarily organic growth at rates consistent with the markets in which our businesses operate
  • Using proportionately our balance sheet, funding and risk
  • Having businesses that reinforce each other with shared products, customers and expertise

Our approach will entail

  • A purposeful management style
  • "Making it happen" for our customers and then for our shareholders
  • A strategic understanding of our businesses and a focus on long-term, quality profitability
  • A business mix more biased than before to stable customer businesses
  • Aiming to rely less on volatile, unsecured wholesale funding

As this is my first letter to RBS shareholders, I should open by saying how aware we all are of the responsibility for leading this institution into better times. We have a great importance to 40 million customers, to many corporations and governments worldwide, to our shareholders and to all those in the communities we serve. In common with many, we are facing tough times. We will do our best to work through these, to support our customers and to restore RBS to standalone financial health and success.

2008 Results

While a downturn was anticipated, no one could have foretold the unprecedented market disruption and global economic downturn that we now experience. With roots in economic imbalances across many countries, the downturn has weakened many. However, that is little consolation for the particular vulnerability that RBS has exhibited.

In 2008 the Group's overall results were bad, with net attributable losses, before goodwill impairments, of £7.9 billion. This is particularly disappointing since many parts of our business did well, serving customers and generating high quality profitability. All our Divisions were profitable except Global Banking & Markets ('GBM') and Asia Retail & Commercial Banking. Even in GBM, underlying income reached £10.2 billion on the back of many strong business performances. Unfortunately, these profits were more than wiped out by credit and market losses in concentrated areas around proprietary trading, structured credit and counterparty exposures. Over 50% of these losses pertained to ABN AMRO-originated portfolios.

In addition, the change in market outlook and our vulnerability thereto has required a £16.2 billion accounting write-down of goodwill and other intangibles relating to prior year acquisitions, most notably of ABN AMRO in 2007 and Charter One in the US in 2004. This non-cash item has minimal impact on capital but does highlight the risk of acquisitions if economic conditions change adversely.

From a capital perspective, successive capital raisings have substantially strengthened the Group's capital ratios. Reported losses have only partially eroded these, and our core Tier 1 ratio stood at 7.0% at the end of 2008, pro forma for the conversion of our preference shares, compared with 4.0% a year earlier. Additionally, the funded balance sheet was reduced by £93 billion, or 17% in constant currency terms. Unfortunately, the extreme dislocation of markets has impeded the risk reduction we target, leaving much still to do. Moreover, the fall in sterling exchange rates inflates our international balance sheet and this, plus extreme market movements, also increases the value of our derivatives balances, albeit recording amounts that would be largely netted off under US GAAP.

RBS has strong businesses, and has taken steps to restore its capital base and benefits from clear Government support. It is our primary task to rebuild standalone strength in the coming years.

The task we face

We are intensely engaged in finalising a strategic restructuring plan for RBS. The goal is to correct those factors that made us particularly vulnerable to the downturn and to adjust further our business to reflect changes in the environment facing our industry. While the plan will not be complete until the second quarter of 2009, we have decided a lot already.

Our strategic plans will take three to five years to execute, given the headwinds of economic downturn. Nevertheless, we expect to make strong and purposeful progress each and every year.

Our aspiration is that RBS should again become one of the world's premier financial institutions, anchored in the UK but serving individual and institutional customers here and globally, and doing it well. We aim for AA category standalone credit status and to rebuild shareholder value, along the way enabling the UK Government to sell down its shareholding.

We should be known for our businesses and how we manage them. We want to focus on enduring customer franchises, with top tier competitive positions where we choose to compete. Our businesses will target 15%+ return on equity and primarily organic growth at rates consistent with the markets in which they operate. Our businesses should reinforce each other with shared products, customers and expertise. Our risks should be diversified, well controlled and proportionate to the business and customer opportunity.

In management style we want to be purposeful, to "make it happen" for our customers and then for our shareholders. We will anchor our efforts in strategic understanding of the businesses, focusing on long-term, quality profitability. Our business mix should be more biased to stable customer businesses than before. We aim to rely less on volatile, unsecured wholesale funding.

Strategic Restructuring Plan

We have embarked on a sweeping restructuring of the Group that will fit our activities to the goals above. While the details of the Strategic Plan will be refined over the coming weeks, we are now able to announce the following:

  • We will create a "non-core" Division of RBS during the second quarter of 2009, separately managed, but within the existing legal structures of the Group and matrix-managed to donating Divisions where necessary. This Division will have approximately £240 billion of third party assets, £145 billion of derivative balances and £155 billion of risk-weighted assets, comprising individual assets, portfolios and businesses of the Group that we intend to run off or dispose of during the next three to five years. The specific timetable will vary in each case, consistent with optimising shareholder value and risk. Approximately 90% of the Non-Core Division will consist of GBM assets, primarily linked to proprietary portfolios, excess risk concentrations and illiquid 'originate and hold' asset portfolios. The remainder will be risk concentrations, 'out of footprint' assets and smaller, less advantaged businesses within our Regional Markets activities across the world.

    As part of this effort our representation in approximately 36 of the 54 countries in which we operate will be significantly reduced or sold. We will remain strong in all our major existing global hubs, however.

    Given the commercial and human sensitivity of these issues, detail on this will not be given until the interim results.

    The income, expenses, impairments and write-downs associated with the Non-Core Division in 2008 were approximately £3.9 billion, £1.1 billion, £3.2 billion and £9.2 billion respectively.

  • In addition to eliminating expenses associated with the Non-Core Division, the restructuring plan will make efficiency savings across the Group, aimed at achieving run-rate reductions by 2011 of greater than £2.5 billion (16% of 2008 cost base) at constant exchange rates. This will involve re-engineering and other measures and, regrettably, reductions in employment. This target excludes any impact of inflation, incentive pay movements or cost reductions arising from business exits or the impact of new projects (if any). It includes the £0.5 billion of ABN AMRO integration benefits previously announced but not reflected in 2008 expenses. We will book one-off charges against these actions over the next three years, with run-rate cost savings expected to provide 'payback' in 1.5 to 1.75 years.

  • We plan to retain each of our major business Divisions since we believe, with intensive restructuring, they can meet the attractive business characteristics outlined as targets above. In many cases the restructuring of these businesses to achieve our goals will be far-reaching. The greatest element of restructuring will be in GBM. A substantial shrinkage of size, product and geographic scope will take place. This should leave GBM positioned around those of its existing core strengths that rest on profitable customer franchise business with significantly less illiquid risk overall.

  • At all times we will responsibly compare the value to RBS of each of our businesses with realistic alternatives and take different actions if they prove compelling. The current state of markets for financial assets and businesses offers little immediate encouragement in that regard.

  • Alongside our business restructuring activities will be substantive changes to management and internal processes. There will continue to be changes of personnel as we promote and reassign internal talent and add to our ranks externally.

    Our Manufacturing Division will re-align with our customer-facing businesses. Businesses will have clear bottom-line returns, allocated equity and balance sheet and funding goals. While we drive for profit, there will be a concentration on earnings quality and sustainability, driven by strategic plans, to ensure alignment of our businesses to their markets and their risk targets. People evaluation and incentivisation will meet best practice levels to support the revised mission of the company. This will be underpinned by a full suite of risk and funding constraints, including concentration limits.

This major change programme has already begun. To carry it through while running our continuing business in difficult markets will test our management capacity. We expect to be successful overall, though we will inevitably have setbacks and make mistakes along the way. But there is no alternative. RBS must change in a far-reaching way. If we do that, the strength, quality and power that are already present in our business across the world will be what shines through once again.

Outlook

To make any forecast is hazardous, beyond the expectation that 2009 will be a very tough year for the world economy. RBS, in common with all banks, will see some erosion of underlying income levels as a result of weaker business activity and low interest rates squeezing savings margins whilst credit costs rise, probably sharply. We hope that markets will be less disrupted than in 2008, with lower associated write-downs, but time will tell. 2009 has, in fact, started well for our businesses.

We have confirmed our intended participation in HM Treasury's Asset Protection Scheme (APS). This would be subject to shareholder approval. More information will be made available as soon as practicable.

Notwithstanding the challenging outlook, our businesses all around the world are inherently good and fully engaged in sustaining as robust a performance as the environment permits. And the strategic restructuring we have embarked on will see high levels of activity designed to reposition RBS successfully.

I believe RBS can come to be regarded again as one of the world's premier financial institutions. My special thanks go to all my colleagues around the world serving our customers everyday, and redoubling their efforts to move RBS forward again.

Stephen Hester Group Chief Executive
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