Critical accounting policies and key sources of estimation uncertainty
The reported results of the Group are sensitive to the accounting policies, assumptions and estimates that underlie the preparation of its financial statements. UK company law and IFRS require the directors, in preparing the Group’s financial statements, to select suitable accounting policies, apply them consistently and make judgements and estimates that are reasonable and prudent. In the absence of an applicable standard or interpretation, IAS 8 ‘Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors’, requires management to develop and apply an accounting policy that results in relevant and reliable information in the light of the requirements and guidance in IFRS dealing with similar and related issues and the IASB’s Framework for the Preparation and Presentation of Financial Statements.
The judgements and assumptions involved in the Group’s accounting policies that are considered by the Board to be the most important to the portrayal of its financial condition are discussed below. The use of estimates, assumptions or models that differ from those adopted by the Group would affect its reported results.
Loan impairment provisions
The Group’s loan impairment provisions are established to recognise incurred impairment losses in its portfolio of loans classified as loans and receivables and carried at amortised cost. A loan is impaired when there is objective evidence that events since the loan was granted have affected expected cash flows from the loan. The impairment loss is the difference between the carrying value of the loan and the present value of estimated future cash flows at the loan’s original effective interest rate.
At 31 December 2006, gross loans and advances to customers totalled £470,826 million (2005 – £421,110 million) and customer loan impairment provisions amounted to £3,933 million (2005 – £3,884 million).
There are two components to the Group’s loan impairment provisions: individual and collective.
Individual component – all impaired loans that exceed specific thresholds are individually assessed for impairment. Individually assessed loans principally comprise the Group’s portfolio of commercial loans to medium and large businesses. Impairment losses are recognised as the difference between the carrying value of the loan and the discounted value of management’s best estimate of future cash repayments and proceeds from any security held. These estimates take into account the customer’s debt capacity and financial flexibility; the level and quality of its earnings; the amount and sources of cash flows; the industry in which the counterparty operates; and the realisable value of any security held. Estimating the quantum and timing of future recoveries involves significant judgement. The size of receipts will depend on the future performance of the borrower and the value of security, both of which will be affected by future economic conditions; additionally, collateral may not be readily marketable. The actual amount of future cash flows and the date they are received may differ from these estimates and consequently actual losses incurred may differ from those recognised in these financial statements.
Collective component – this is made up of two elements: loan impairment provisions for impaired loans that are below individual assessment thresholds (collective impaired loan provisions) and for loan losses that have been incurred but have not been separately identified at the balance sheet date (latent loss provisions). These are established on a portfolio basis using a present value methodology taking into account the level of arrears, security, past loss experience, credit scores and defaults based on portfolio trends. The most significant factors in establishing these provisions are the expected loss rates and the related average life. These portfolios include credit card receivables and other personal advances including mortgages. The future credit quality of these portfolios is subject to uncertainties that could cause actual credit losses to differ materially from reported loan impairment provisions. These uncertainties include the economic environment, notably interest rates and their effect on customer spending, the unemployment level, payment behaviour and bankruptcy trends.
Pensions
The Group operates a number of defined benefit pension schemes as described in Note 3 on the accounts. The assets of the schemes are measured at their fair value at the balance sheet date. Scheme liabilities are measured using the projected unit method, which takes account of projected earnings increases, using actuarial assumptions that give the best estimate of the future cash flows that will arise under the scheme liabilities. These cash flows are discounted at the interest rate applicable to high-quality corporate bonds of the same currency and term as the liabilities. Any surplus or deficit of scheme assets over liabilities is recognised in the balance sheet as an asset (surplus) or liability (deficit). In determining the value of scheme liabilities, assumptions are made as to price inflation, dividend growth, pension increases, earnings growth and employees. There is a range of assumptions that could be adopted in valuing the schemes’ liabilities. Different assumptions could significantly alter the amount of the deficit recognised in the balance sheet and the pension cost charged to the income statement. The assumptions adopted for the Group’s pension schemes are set out in Note 3 on the accounts. The pension deficit recognised in the balance sheet at 31 December 2006 was £1,992 million (2005 – £3,735 million).
Fair value
Financial instruments classified as held-for-trading or designated as at fair value through profit or loss and financial assets classified as available-for-sale are recognised in the financial statements at fair value. All derivatives are measured at fair value. In the balance sheet, financial assets carried at fair value are included within Treasury and other eligible bills, Loans and advances to banks, Loans and advances to customers, Debt securities and Equity shares as appropriate. Financial liabilities carried at fair value are included within the captions Deposits by banks, Customer accounts, Debt securities in issue and Subordinated liabilities. Derivative assets and Derivative liabilities are shown separately on the face of the balance sheets. Gains or losses arising from changes in fair value of financial instruments classified as held-for-trading or designated as at fair value through profit or loss are included in the income statement. Unrealised gains and losses on available-for-sale financial assets are recognised directly in equity unless an impairment loss is recognised. The carrying value of a financial asset or a financial liability carried at cost or amortised cost that is the hedged item in a qualifying hedge relationship is adjusted by the gain or loss attributable to the hedged risk.
Fair value is the amount for which an asset could be exchanged, or a liability settled, between knowledgeable, willing parties in an arm's length transaction. Fair values are determined by reference to observable market prices where available and reliable. Where representative market prices for an instrument are not available or are unreliable because of poor liquidity, the fair value is derived from prices for its components using appropriate pricing or valuation models that are based on independently sourced market parameters, including interest rate yield curves, option volatilities and currency rates.
Financial assets carried at fair value include government, asset backed and corporate debt securities, reverse repos, loans, corporate equity shares and derivatives. Financial liabilities carried at fair value include deposits, repos, short positions in securities and debt securities issued. Fair value for a substantial proportion of these instruments is based on observable market prices or derived from observable market parameters. Where observable prices are not available, fair value is based on appropriate valuation techniques or management estimates.
The Group’s derivative products include swaps, forwards, futures and options. Exchange traded instruments are valued using quoted prices. The fair value of over-the-counter instruments is derived from pricing models which take account of contract terms, including maturity, as well as quoted market parameters such as interest rates and volatilities. Most of the Group’s pricing models do not entail material subjectivity because the methodologies utilised do not incorporate significant judgement and the parameters included in the models can be calibrated to actively quoted market prices. Values established from pricing models are adjusted for credit risk, liquidity risk and future servicing costs.
A negligible proportion of the Group’s trading derivatives are valued directly from quoted prices, the majority being valued using appropriate valuation techniques. The fair value of substantially all securities positions carried at fair value is determined directly from quoted prices.
Details of financial instruments carried at fair value are given in Note 35 on the accounts.
General insurance claims
The Group makes provision for the full cost of settling outstanding claims arising from its general insurance business at the balance sheet date, including claims estimated to have been incurred but not yet reported at that date and claims handling expenses. General insurance claims provisions amounted to £5,247 million at 31 December 2006 (2005 – £4,913 million).
Provisions are determined by management based on experience of claims settled and on statistical models which require certain assumptions to be made regarding the incidence, timing and amount of claims and any specific factors such as adverse weather conditions. In order to calculate the total provision required, the historical development of claims is analysed using statistical methodology to extrapolate, within acceptable probability parameters, the value of outstanding claims at the balance sheet date. Also included in the estimation of outstanding claims are other assumptions such as the inflationary factor used for bodily injury claims which is based on historical trends and, therefore, allows for some increase due to changes in common law and statute.
Costs for both direct and indirect claims handling expenses are also included. Outward reinsurance recoveries are accounted for in the same accounting period as the direct claims to which they relate. The outstanding claims provision is based on information available to management and the eventual outcome may vary from the original assessment. Actual claims experience may differ from the historical pattern on which the estimate is based and the cost of settling individual claims may exceed that assumed.
Goodwill
The Group capitalises goodwill arising on the acquisition of businesses, as discussed in accounting policy 5. The carrying value of goodwill as at 31 December 2006 was £17,889 million (2005 – £18,823 million).
Goodwill is the excess of the cost of an acquisition over the fair value of its net assets. The determination of the fair value of assets and liabilities of businesses acquired requires the exercise of management judgement; for example those financial assets and liabilities for which there are no quoted prices, and those non-financial assets where valuations reflect estimates of market conditions such as property. Different fair values would result in changes to the goodwill arising and to the post-acquisition performance of the acquisition. Goodwill is not amortised but is tested for impairment annually or more frequently if events or changes in circumstances indicate that it might be impaired.
For the purposes of impairment testing, goodwill acquired in a business combination is allocated to each of the Group’s cash-generating units or groups of cash-generating units expected to benefit from the combination. Goodwill impairment testing involves the comparison of the carrying value of a cash-generating unit or group of cash generating units with its recoverable amount. The recoverable amount is the higher of the unit’s fair value and its value in use. Value in use is the present value of expected future cash flows from the cash-generating unit or group of cash-generating units. Fair value is the amount obtainable for the sale of the cash-generating unit in an arm’s length transaction between knowledgeable, willing parties.
Impairment testing inherently involves a number of judgmental areas: the preparation of cash flow forecasts for periods that are beyond the normal requirements of management reporting; the assessment of the discount rate appropriate to the business; estimation of the fair value of cash-generating units; and the valuation of the separable assets of each business whose goodwill is being reviewed.
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