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Recent articles
- 8th March 2010
- US Weekly Economic Update (PDF 42KB)
The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7% in February. In fact there was little change in the overall employment situation offering some hope that the jobs market is stabilising after two years of marked decline. Non-farm payrolls did slip slightly (-36K, but less than expected), as severe weather in parts of the country disrupted work and the construction and information sectors shed workers. Total employment has fallen by 8.4m since December 2007, of which the construction sector has account for over a fifth (22%).
- 4th March 2010
- Interest and Exchange Rate Forecast (PDF 60KB)
Activity remains weak and policy settings accommodative. The MPC and ECB left interest rates on hold this month, and we expect the same from the Fed on March 16th. Improving economic and financial conditions in the US raise the prospect of rates being raised there sooner than they are in Europe. In the UK, investor concerns around a hung parliament have made times tough for sterling, but looking beyond short term volatility, our exchange rate views haven't changed.
- 4th February 2010
- Interest and Exchange Rate Forecast (PDF 64KB)
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee left rates on hold at 0.5% and signalled a pause in its asset purchase programme at £200bn. The considerable stimulus that has been provided to the economy from monetary policy will continue to support domestic activity, though the Bank has left open the possibility of a further extension to QE should the outlook warrant it.
- 8th January 2010
- Interest and Exchange Rate Forecast (PDF 59KB)
The Bank of England was the first central bank to discuss monetary policy this year, and the meeting set the tone for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Rates were kept on hold and no changes were made to quantitative easing. But February will herald the Bank of England's Inflation Report and the difficult decision of whether it has done enough to stimulate the economy, or whether more needs to be done to meet its 2% inflation target at the two year horizon. The Fed and the ECB face similarly difficult decisions in the months ahead.
US Weekly Economic Updates Archive
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