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2nd November 2009
US Weekly Economic Update (PDF 36KB)

The US economy expanded in the third quarter, after four consecutive quarterly contractions. GDP grew 3.5% on a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis (-2.3% y/y). Consumer spending contributed 2.4 percentage points to overall growth, though an important part of this was because of the boost to spending on 'durable goods' due to the government's cash for clunkers program. Other components of the economy also added to growth, with housing construction posting an increase for the first quarter since 2005, and reduced inventory de-stocking also contributing. The US may be out of recession from an economists¿ definition, but with unemployment continuing to rise, it is unlikely to feel like that for some time for the 'man on the street'.

14th October 2009
Interest and Exchange Rate Forecast (pdf 58KB)

There is a chance that the UK economy will manage positive growth in Q3 for the first time since the start of 2008. Even so, output and spending growth are both likely to remain weak for some time. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's (NIESR) monthly estimate of GDP suggests growth in the three months to September was flat, pointing to the end of the recession rather than the beginnings of a robust recovery. Indeed, business surveys point to a pickup in the service sector but continued torpor in industrial production.

30th September 2009
Interest and Exchange Rate Forecast (pdf 57KB)

Inflation remains higher in the UK than in the US and euro area where headline inflation has been negative for a number of months. Significant spare capacity is likely to weigh on prices for all three economies over the coming year, meaning central bankers can be fairly relaxed about economies overheating and driving prices higher.

28th August 2009
Global Economic Outlook (pdf 143KB)

The trajectory of the global economy will be determined by two factors: the potency of the extraordinary policy stimulus, and the extent of the deterioration in growth potential caused by the global financial crisis. The Global Economic Outlook addresses these issues and looks at the prospects for the UK, US, Eurozone and Asian economies, and the outlook for oil prices going forward.

US Weekly Economic Updates Archive

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