http://www.rbs.com/investors/economic-insight/group-chief-economists-weekly-brief.ashx A description of the Group Chief Economists weekly brief archive feed. en-us 06 Feb 2012 16:00:00 GMT 06 Feb 2012 16:00:00 GMT http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss managing_editor@rbs.com webmaster@rbs.com At the start of the RBS Six Nations rugby tournament many would be hoping that the European policymakers would take a leaf out of the players' books and just get on with it. Unlike good rugby, when passing the ball leads to success, too many of the European policymakers' passes have led nowhere. Greece has to find ?14bn by 20 March to avoid a default. Without help it won't have the funds to do this, and this is casting a shadow over the Eurozone and global economy. It's time for the policymakers to push forward with conviction. In the UK and the US there have been some encouraging signs of economic revival. But even these are tinged with caution because of conditions in Europe. The governments on both sides of the pond will be hoping that their teams will gather enough momentum to push through this economic opposition. http://www.rbs.com/downloads/pdf/economic_insight/cewb/Chief-Economist-Weekly-Brief-2012-02-06.pdf 06 Feb 2012 16:00:00 GMT Economy Investment It was never going to be a particularly jolly affair, but the mood at this year's annual meeting of the World Economic Forum was much gloomier than previous years. The IMF announced a substantial reduction to its 2012 global economic forecast. No surprises about where it laid the blame - Europe. And the Brussels summit this week will address how to improve growth in the Eurozone. Confidence needs to be restored to achieve this, but for this to happen a realistic plan to end the crisis has to be in place. With continued wrangling about how best to achieve this, and Greece still a big worry, the delegates won't be feeling happy on their way home from Switzerland. At least there was some better news from the US where GDP growth picked up in the final quarter. While there are still risks ahead, this could be light at the end of a very long tunnel. http://www.rbs.com/downloads/pdf/economic_insight/cewb/Chief-Economist-Weekly-Brief-2012-01-30.pdf 30 Jan 2012 16:00:00 GMT Economy Investment Private investors in Greek government bonds shied away from an agreement to accept just half of the capital they lent in the first place and take a lower interest return on the remaining debt. The haircut alone was less of a trim than a short back and sides, but if Greece defaults these investors risk a scalping, in the form of losing all of their money. Whether Greece will qualify for the bailout it needs is now in question and has unsettled markets again, despite the better news from Ireland last week. The Irish government managed to bring its deficit down well below the level needed to qualify for its next bailout and looks to be in safer territory as a result - at least for now. http://www.rbs.com/downloads/pdf/economic_insight/cewb/Chief-Economist-Weekly-Brief-2012-01-23.pdf 23 Jan 2012 16:00:00 GMT Economy Investment The loss of France's cherished AAA rating was a particular blow to President Sarkozy in his election year. But there is more to worry about than a politician's feelings. Eight other Eurozone members, including Austria, Italy, Spain and Portugal, were also downgraded. Standard & Poor's decision froze out hopes that sentiment towards the Eurozone was beginning to thaw after the successful bond issues in Spain and Italy during the week. The decision to downgrade was blamed on European policymakers' lack of action. This will certainly turn the heat up under them to find a swift resolution at the next summit. But worryingly, it also raises questions about the strength of the Eurozone's rescue fund as a smaller proportion of its resources will now be backed by AAA rated countries. And the bad news on Europe didn't end there. Greek debt restructuring talks collapsed, increasing the chances of a disorderly default. So, like the weather, the warm spell is over for now and it's another cold snap. http://www.rbs.com/downloads/pdf/economic_insight/cewb/Chief-Economist-Weekly-Brief-2012-01-16.pdf 16 Jan 2012 16:00:00 GMT Economy Investment The optimism at the start of 2011 was founded on strong global economic growth, but developments throughout the year mean that we enter 2012 in a much gloomier mood. Inflation, rising unemployment and much weaker than expected growth outturns in 2011 mean that meeting the austerity challenge is going to be painful in 2012. But there is some good news. The US economy seems to be dragging itself out of the doldrums and global manufacturing surveys have picked up. However, there is still lots of uncertainty, particularly where much of the outlook depends on global developments we can't control. It looks like 2012 will be a tussle between the hope of a continued recovery in the US and the fear of a worsening Eurozone crisis. http://www.rbs.com/downloads/pdf/economic_insight/cewb/Chief-Economist-Weekly-Brief-2012-01-09.pdf 09 Jan 2012 16:00:00 GMT Economy Investment