#Fed keeps it's foot on the gas pedal. Asset purchases maintained at $85bn per month.
Humdrum set of #MPC minutes. Two most interesting issues: weak wage growth and sensitivity of fin markets to changes in policy expectations.
#MPC voted 6-3 to leave QE unchanged in June. Decision to hold bank rate was unanimous. No surprises.
Air fares, motor fuels & clothing were the largest contributors to the rise in inflation to 2.7%y/y in May.
Squeeze on consumers gets a little tighter. UK CPI inflation rose to 2.7%y/y in May, from 2.4% in April.
Eurozone industrial production grew by 0.4% m/m in April on the back of a 2.7% m/m increase in the production of capital goods
The European Central Bank kept rates on hold at a record-low of 0.5% at its June meeting after a cut of 25 bps in May.
No final hurrah in Mervyn King's last MPC meeting as the Bank of England leaves the bank rate at 0.5% and QE at £375bn.
Second estimate of GDP confirm the Eurozone economy shrank by 0.2% q/q in Q1 2013 as investment dropped by 1.6% and exports fell by 0.8%
Letters from America - the latest Chief Economist's Weekly Brief is now available: rbs.com/news/2013/05/l…
The struggle to maintain living standards. UK retail sales vol. (incl fuel) up just 1% since Q108. Real average weekly earnings down 10.8%!
UK retailers suffer in April as sales volumes decline 1.3%m/m. 4.1%m/m fall in food sales biggest dop since May 2011.
Bank of England's MPC remains split on more QE or not. 6-3 against at May meeting. Will a change of Governor in July change the result?
Also, in this month’s World Economy Barometer we take a closer look at the US manufacturing renaissance. tinyurl.com/m8sngr4
The latest RBS Group Economics World Economy Barometer - our new monthly summary - is available now.tinyurl.com/m8sngr4
#Employment down 43k q/q but number of employees up 21k. Almost all of the fall from fewer part-time self-employed and fewer second jobs.
Eurozone recession extends into 2013 as GDP contracted by 0.2% in the three months to March. The sixth consecutive quarterly contraction.
Better month for UK exporters. Overall trade deficit down to £3.1bn in Mar from £3.4 in Feb. Helped by rise in non-EU goods exports.
No change in UK monetary policy - BoE leaves Bank rate at 0.5% and maintains QE at £375bn.
Encouraging Service Sector #PMI. Strongest increase in new work since last May, helped by rise in overseas demand. Employment up too.
Press saying #ECB rate cut was widely expected. But just 2 months ago, Consensus implied only 12 ex 80 EZ economists expected cut by end Q2.
The European Central Bank cut its main refinancing rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.50% as the Eurozone crisis economic deepens
Eurozone unemployment rate went up a notch to a new euro-era high of 12.1% in March, from 12% in Feb
#UKGDP. Services growth fairly strong in Q1, up 0.6%q/q. Both manufacturing and construction output fell.
UK economic output still 2.6% below Q1 2008. #GDP
Compared to Q1 last year, the economy is 0.6% larger. #UKeconomy
UK Q1 GDP released at 9.30.Consensus is for a 0.1%q/q rise.The figure is unlikely to change the big picture of bouncing along the bottom.
S. Korea's economy moved through the gears in Q1 - up 0.9%q/q and 1.5%y/y - fastest pace in two years.
Group Economics has a NEW monthly global economic summary.Click here to sign up tinyurl.com/cpyr4oz
Germany moved into reverse in April. Composite #PMI fell to a six-month low of 48.8, indicating contraction, as new orders continue to fall
Eurozone Composite #PMI stable at 46.5 in April as services sector improves slightly and manufacturing slips further
UK is one of the world's "crisis economies", according to incoming BoE Governor Mark Carney.
BoE MPC members voting against more QE in April concerned with potential impact on inflation, inflation expectations & weaker sterling.
#UK#Unemployment up 0.2 ppts to 7.9%. 70k more people unemployed than prior 3 mnths. Av earnings growth slows to 0.8%y/y vs. 2.8%y/y CPI.
BoE Monetary Policy Committee 6-3 split against further QE remained at April meeting.
RT @WilliamsonChris: Rate cut? EZ inflation now < target for 2nd month & PMI, plotted here v. ECB decisions, well in stimulus ter ...
#CPI Inflation unchanged from last month at 2.8%.
World economy barometer–a look at the UK, US,EZ and Asia based around the latest purchasing managers indices (PMIs). tinyurl.com/c2y2jud.
The latest addition to our suite of products - world economy barometer - is now out. tinyurl.com/c2y2jud.
Broad-based increase in construction output in Feb, which is good news, though activity levels in the sector remain depressed - down 7% y/y
#China’s credit growth.The bad news is that property bubbles and government debt problems are back in the limelight.
#China’s credit growth.The good news is that it’s positive for growth.Inverstment looks set to grow at a healthy pace.
#China's credit growth continues to look very high.The 'financing aggregate' figure for March leaves the 3mma at over 66%y/y.
UK exporters struggling in 2013. Exports to non-EU countries down 4.7% in Feb. Export volumes down 7.5% since start of the year.
UK trade deficit widens in Feb to £3.6bn, from £2.5bn in Jan as exports fall and imports rise.
Struggle to rebalance UK economy continues. Feb manufacturing output down 1.4%y/y in Feb - 14th straight monthly y/y decline!
No surprises from the Bank of England - rates left at 0.5%, Asset Purchase Programme (QE) unchanged at £375bn
UK March services PMI shows fastest pace of growth in the sector in seven months (52.4) - bodes well for UK avoiding a recession in Q1
Eurozone PMIs make difficult reading - French PMI particularly alarming at 41.9, a four year low. UK services PMI due in 15 mins
UK 10yr Gilt yields down 50bps from 12m highs in Feb as an inconclusive Italian election & Cypriot banking crisis support safe haven demand
The roof keeps rising on US housing. After a 28% y/y rise in starts in Feb, sales were up 10% y/y. Fewer distressed & more 'normal' sales.
Eurozone downturns intensifies as composite PMIs dropped further from 47.9 in Feb to 46.5 in Mar
#Budget2013 - over five years, the announcements today are almost perfectly fiscally neutral.
#Budget2013 corporation tax to be cut in 2015 to 20%
#Budget2013 - Public sector net debt set to peak at 85.6% in 2016/17. At last year's budget it was going to peak at 76.3% in 2014/15
#Budget - Public sector net debt forecast to be 84.8% in 2017/8. In December forecast it was estimated to be 77.3%
#Budget – OBR halves 2013 GDP growth forecast to 0.6%.
#budget2013: OBR June 2010 forecast tax receipts of £622bn in 2012 fiscal year. IFS expect just over £590bn.
#budget2013: Of the fall in deficit, 3/4 has come from tax rises and spending cuts, 1/4 from GDP growth.
#budget2013: OBR June 2010 forecast defict of 11% of GDP in 2009 to halve to 5.5% in 2012. We expect underlying actual of 7.5%.
#budget2013: Here we look at how the UK public finances compare to what was expected way back at George Osborne's first budget in June 2010…
#Budget2013: 2010-12 UK unemployment rate in middle of G7 countries. Average GDP growth second slowest after Italy.
Excitement mounting here in Economics Towers as #Budget 2013 approaches. It’s our Christmas Eve.
#Budget2013 2010-12 UK structural def/GDP reduction largest in G7. Only Japan had larger debt/GDP increase acc. to IMF estimates & forecasts
Cost of living in UK on the up again. CPI inflations at 2.8%y/y in Feb, from 2.7%y/y in Jan.
Eurozone inflation rate continues to decline, dropping to 1.8% in Feb from 2% in Jan, as the economy continues to struggle
17 Jun 2013 | no comments |
The UK labour market has weathered the storms thrown at it surprisingly well. This week we take a look at one aspect of its flexibility in particular – the vital role being played by self-employment – and ask, is this a golden age for entrepreneurs?
14 Jun 2013 | no comments |
It's hard to read the runes of global business surveys this month. On the plus side activity is up. The UK and Japan performed well, with businesses reporting above trend activity.
10 Jun 2013 | no comments |
Governor Mervyn King chaired his final meeting of the Bank of England’s MPC last week. In helping to establish this committee, and in serving on it for 16 years, he has been an incredibly important actor in UK economic policy.
07 Jun 2013 | no comments |
Changes afoot: There was no policy change from the European Central Bank or Bank of England in June. But changes are afoot. At Threadneedle Street, Governor King steps down at the end of June after 194 meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee. And with an improving US economy, speculation is increasing about when the Federal Reserve will begin to ease back on its quantitative easing programme.
06 Jun 2013 | no comments |
"May’s bounce in manufacturing and services activity squashed any chance of the MPC shifting policy levers. The question is whether this new momentum is sustainable ...."
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